Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 00:00:00+00:00 20.903281 22.838093 24.993060 27.596602 30.692364 34.302905 38.905562
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 18.021174 20.518505 23.512440 27.454425 32.654334 39.517784 49.734352
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 16.099874 18.909762 22.476290 27.516997 34.806748 45.655726 64.794926
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 14.730995 17.739044 21.740421 27.752696 37.216444 53.108216 87.191781
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 13.651720 16.774596 21.092655 27.932019 39.563984 61.592231 120.855747
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 12.718326 15.879362 20.388433 27.851409 41.437215 70.297994 170.787348
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 11.989202 15.180278 19.860057 27.924555 43.598576 81.148362 263.726980
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 11.297281 14.460027 19.199881 27.637164 44.961392 91.262108 425.772984
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 10.742193 13.887447 18.697107 27.527226 46.671027 104.206040 870.482017
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 10.247679 13.362035 18.208312 27.352030 48.189727 118.592247 3029.768098
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 9.834502 12.927055 17.819826 27.298661 50.008568 137.225833 NaN
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 9.404047 12.433955 17.286200 26.873674 50.745271 152.800743 NaN
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 9.238223 12.354006 17.463426 27.963583 56.285060 212.282976 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 8.873611 11.932326 17.007078 27.644336 57.568211 249.933360 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.581182 11.609682 16.699729 27.609124 59.835630 313.989996 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.342151 11.359382 16.500887 27.789547 63.020239 428.206358 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.118013 11.119876 16.300791 27.936790 66.254686 620.372427 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.881820 10.846732 16.015668 27.837789 68.544449 908.550934 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 7.681793 10.623757 15.808018 27.900384 71.665023 1637.341781 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 7.456996 10.347329 15.477858 27.607547 73.085067 3001.701559 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.266659 10.121058 15.229601 27.494493 75.419923 11639.098810 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.082206 9.896546 14.969892 27.317782 77.424832 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 6.921440 9.706085 14.765212 27.263467 80.179283 NaN NaN